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1 Web 2017.md
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@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Contents:
* [The Attention Economy, Servant of Growth Capitalism](#the-attention-economy-servant-of-growth-capitalism) * [The Attention Economy, Servant of Growth Capitalism](#the-attention-economy-servant-of-growth-capitalism)
* [From Connection to Consumption](#from-connection-to-consumption) * [From Connection to Consumption](#from-connection-to-consumption)
* [The Chinese Model](#the-chinese-model) * [The Chinese Model](#the-chinese-model)
* [An American Model](#an-american-model) * [An American Model?](#an-american-model?)
* [Further Reading](#further-reading-and-sources) * [Further Reading](#further-reading-and-sources)
## A Beastiary of Obvious Failures ## A Beastiary of Obvious Failures
@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Contents:
* **Imdb message boards shutting down.** - Earlier this year, IMDB [shut down its message boards](http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/imdb-message-boards-shut-down-1201977581/) because they were filling with accusations of racism, angry culture flamewars between total strangers, and general trolling. This has nothing to do with "fake news". But it's a related symptom of the overall systemic failure of the Internet as a communications medium to connect humans. * **Imdb message boards shutting down.** - Earlier this year, IMDB [shut down its message boards](http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/imdb-message-boards-shut-down-1201977581/) because they were filling with accusations of racism, angry culture flamewars between total strangers, and general trolling. This has nothing to do with "fake news". But it's a related symptom of the overall systemic failure of the Internet as a communications medium to connect humans.
* **[Verizon Supercookie](https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/7/11173010/verizon-supercookie-fine-1-3-million-fcc)** - Telcos, which should be safely considered as common carriers for dumb bits, have repeatedly engaged in behavior that makes their users ultra-targetable. [Verizon & AT&T track users' location and detailed information](https://www.androidauthority.com/verizon-att-selling-information-807684/). Laws and regulations and fines will not work. Relying on big public entites with thin margins to police themselves will not work. Even if we could hypothetically assume that they always have pure intentions, rogue employees and buggy implementation are a perpetual vulnerability. Invoking the principle that "Code Is Law", we need a digital communications infrastructure where this sort of exploitation is *simply not possible*. * **[Verizon Supercookie](https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/7/11173010/verizon-supercookie-fine-1-3-million-fcc)** - Telcos, which should be safely considered as common carriers for dumb bits, have repeatedly engaged in behavior that makes their users ultra-targetable. [Verizon & AT&T track users' location and detailed information](https://www.androidauthority.com/verizon-att-selling-information-807684/). Laws and regulations and fines will not work. Relying on big public corporations with thin margins to police themselves will not work. Even if we could hypothetically assume that they always have pure intentions, rogue employees and buggy implementation are a perpetual vulnerability. Invoking the principle that "Code Is Law", we need a digital communications infrastructure where this sort of exploitation is *simply not possible*.
* **[Apple refused to unlock an iPhone for the FBI](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-wants-apple-to-help-unlock-iphone-used-by-san-bernardino-shooter/2016/02/16/69b903ee-d4d9-11e5-9823-02b905009f99_story.html)** - The famous case a few years ago when Apple refused to unlock a suspect's iPhone for the FBI. So, instead, [the FBI paid a 3rd party $900,000 and got the job done](https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/08/fbi-paid-900000-to-unlock-san-bernardino-iphone/). Our device manufacturers control too much of an integrated stack, and just like the telcos, we rely on them to self-police. * **[Apple refused to unlock an iPhone for the FBI](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-wants-apple-to-help-unlock-iphone-used-by-san-bernardino-shooter/2016/02/16/69b903ee-d4d9-11e5-9823-02b905009f99_story.html)** - The famous case a few years ago when Apple refused to unlock a suspect's iPhone for the FBI. So, instead, [the FBI paid a 3rd party $900,000 and got the job done](https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/08/fbi-paid-900000-to-unlock-san-bernardino-iphone/). Our device manufacturers control too much of an integrated stack, and just like the telcos, we rely on them to self-police.
@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ Contents:
* **[Blue Feed, Red Feed](http://graphics.wsj.com/blue-feed-red-feed/)** - A Wall Street Journal interactive exploration of what a targetable medium looks like. If only Marshall McLuhan were around to witness this. The medium is truly now massaged. * **[Blue Feed, Red Feed](http://graphics.wsj.com/blue-feed-red-feed/)** - A Wall Street Journal interactive exploration of what a targetable medium looks like. If only Marshall McLuhan were around to witness this. The medium is truly now massaged.
* **[The CIA's "Siren Servers"](ttp://sociable.co/technology/cia-siren-servers-social-uprisings/)** - AI will definitely emerge, as learning computers have to make predictions and take actions in a network that is as smart or smarter than them. * **[The CIA's "Siren Servers"](http://sociable.co/technology/cia-siren-servers-social-uprisings/)** - AI will definitely emerge, as learning computers have to make predictions and take actions in a network that is as smart or smarter than them.
* **[Counterfeiters on Amazon](http://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2017/02/13/after-selling-millions-family-run-makin-bacon-battles-amazon-counterfeiters/)** - Because Amazon centralized the online consumer experience, they are now the target of significant counterfeiting. Even with their money and resources, they have to employ manual teams to play Whack a Mole, and they're failing. And ultimately this is on them: in their rush for market share, they reduced the friction for random people on the internet to set up a store and start selling things. The structural failure behind this failure is that we have defaulted to relying on email address and website to be proxies for identity. I want an internet where people know you're a dog, and where I can require that other entities I interact with have some history in my social sphere. * **[Counterfeiters on Amazon](http://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2017/02/13/after-selling-millions-family-run-makin-bacon-battles-amazon-counterfeiters/)** - Because Amazon centralized the online consumer experience, they are now the target of significant counterfeiting. Even with their money and resources, they have to employ manual teams to play Whack a Mole, and they're failing. And ultimately this is on them: in their rush for market share, they reduced the friction for random people on the internet to set up a store and start selling things. The structural failure behind this failure is that we have defaulted to relying on email address and website to be proxies for identity. I want an internet where people know you're a dog, and where I can require that other entities I interact with have some history in my social sphere.
@ -71,11 +71,11 @@ All economic forces within the United States are oriented towards increasing con
The explosion of Mass Media via cable TV coincidentally occured through the same time period. This created a lot more eyeball-hours to monetize, and coupled with the rise of Chinese manufacturing and the box-store-fication of America, has led to a national zeitgeist of consumption, individual experience, and a divestiture of social involvement in local institutions. We don't buy local, we don't read local, we don't sell local. Instead, we aggregate demand, attention, dollars up to ever higher, ever larger global entities. The explosion of Mass Media via cable TV coincidentally occured through the same time period. This created a lot more eyeball-hours to monetize, and coupled with the rise of Chinese manufacturing and the box-store-fication of America, has led to a national zeitgeist of consumption, individual experience, and a divestiture of social involvement in local institutions. We don't buy local, we don't read local, we don't sell local. Instead, we aggregate demand, attention, dollars up to ever higher, ever larger global entities.
This sea change in the tapestry of American life has been gradual but its effects are devastating. America, more so than any other country, has a fixation on the glory of individual freedom and achievement. But no one really thought through what happens when we destroy the social institutions that provide a culture and a medium for individuals to attain higher levels in their Maslow pyramid. This sea change in the tapestry of American life has been gradual but its effects are devastating. America, more so than any other country, has a fixation on the glory of individual freedom and achievement. But no one really thought through what happens when we destroy the social institutions that provide a culture and a medium for individuals to attain higher levels in their Maslow pyramids.
While many people are discontent with this state of affairs, there are many more who are less resilient, and fall prey to the engagement tricks and gamification of social media platforms. It is an open question whether we have passed the point where we could truly innoculate the full population to such manipulation. As a point of pragmatism, those who are interested in fixing the situation may have to factor into their model that some large percentage of the population will remain digital herd animals, whose mental states are being micro-auctioned off to the highest bidder. While many people are discontent with this state of affairs, there are many more who are less resilient, and fall prey to the engagement tricks and gamification of social media platforms. It is an open question whether we have passed the point where we could truly innoculate the full population to such manipulation. As a point of pragmatism, those who are interested in fixing the situation may have to factor into their model that some large percentage of the population will remain digital herd animals, whose mental states are being micro-auctioned off to the highest bidder.
We now know that in 2016, the Facebook and Google platforms auctioned off portions of our fellow Americans' brains to Russian manipuation and false propaganda. If they were Japanese companies, where shame and honor are meaningful concepts, the entire board would have come out and committed seppuku. The fact that they have not, tells us all we need to know about the future trajectory of these attention markets. We now know that in 2016, the Facebook and Google platforms auctioned off portions of our fellow Americans' brains to Russian manipulation and false propaganda. If they were Japanese companies, where shame and honor are meaningful concepts, the entire board would have come out and committed seppuku. The fact that they have not, tells us all we need to know about the future trajectory of these attention markets.
The Chinese Model The Chinese Model
@ -83,20 +83,20 @@ The Chinese Model
But we don't need a time machine to see what comes next; we just need to look at China. China has a set of domestic social apps that perform similar functions to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Ebay, and Amazon. The difference is that these apps (WeChat, QQ, etc.) are fully surveilled by the government, and they do not hide this fact. More savvy users will use VPN technologies to circumvent the Great Firewall, and the Chinese government lets them mostly get away with it, because under normal conditions it is fairly harmless. However, they freely exert control when they need to: In the weeks leading up to the Communist Party meeting in October 2017, they started locking down VPN services to reduce risk of agitators organizing protest. But we don't need a time machine to see what comes next; we just need to look at China. China has a set of domestic social apps that perform similar functions to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Ebay, and Amazon. The difference is that these apps (WeChat, QQ, etc.) are fully surveilled by the government, and they do not hide this fact. More savvy users will use VPN technologies to circumvent the Great Firewall, and the Chinese government lets them mostly get away with it, because under normal conditions it is fairly harmless. However, they freely exert control when they need to: In the weeks leading up to the Communist Party meeting in October 2017, they started locking down VPN services to reduce risk of agitators organizing protest.
The Great Firewall itself is an amazing piece of technology. When the Chinese government tries to remove information about the bloody Tiannamen Square protests in 1989, they have to really work at it, because the information is spread around in so many places. But when news of the Panama Papers broke last year, they [blocked it instantly across the entire Chinese Internet](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/all-mention-of-panama-papers-banned-from-chinese-websites) and with exceptional efficacy within hours of the news breaking. They have content filters at every service and every tier, and shameless track every second of user engagement with any online resource. They have even wired up an entire province into a police state, [forcing residents to install surveillance apps onto their phones](http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2102484/sweeping-counter-terrorism-measures-chinas-xinjiang) The Great Firewall itself is an amazing piece of technology. When the Chinese government tries to remove information about the bloody Tiannamen Square protests in 1989, they have to really work at it, because the information is spread around in so many places. But when news of the Panama Papers broke last year, they [blocked it instantly across the entire Chinese Internet](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/all-mention-of-panama-papers-banned-from-chinese-websites) and with exceptional efficacy within hours of the news breaking. They have content filters at every service and every tier, and shamelessly track every second of user engagement with any online resource. They have even wired up an entire province into a police state, [forcing residents to install surveillance apps onto their phones](http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2102484/sweeping-counter-terrorism-measures-chinas-xinjiang).
We do not know how much access the backend surveillance system provides to Communist Party officials of different levels. One can only imagine the breathtaking levels of power, backstabbing, and intrigue that govern the operations of the Ministry of Information. We do not know how much access the backend surveillance system provides to Communist Party officials of different levels. One can only imagine the breathtaking levels of power, backstabbing, and intrigue that govern the operations of the Ministry of Information.
An American Model An American Model?
----------------- ------------------
Of course, we imagine America would not put up with such overt surveillance, but the danger is that we won't even be asked. AI will make this 100x worse because it's good enough to fool us into not realizing it's there. Of course, we imagine America would not put up with such overt surveillance, but the danger is that we won't even be asked. AI will make this 100x worse because it's good enough to fool us into not realizing it's there.
Law enforcement officials at every level of jurisdiction are starting to look to data science and machine learning to better predict crime. Even without new surveillance technology like drones and [low-flying aircraft](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-baltimore-secret-surveillance/), there is significant gray area to be encroached. The first time that Facebook or Google or Verizon reveal that they have statistical modeling that can predict potential shootings with 90% accuracy, or domestic violence with 95% accuracy, we're going to enter a whole new world. Law enforcement officials at every level of jurisdiction are starting to look to data science and machine learning to better predict crime. Even without new surveillance technology like drones and [low-flying aircraft](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-baltimore-secret-surveillance/), there is significant gray area to be encroached. The first time that Facebook or Google or Verizon reveal that they have statistical modeling that can predict potential shootings with 90% accuracy, or domestic violence with 95% accuracy, we're going to enter a whole new world.
Furthermore, there's no reason why government actors wouldn't create games and ads and other kinds of "engagement honeypots" that refine their crime likelihood models. A group of suspected "at risk" folks get sponsored ads for a gun show in their area, and they linger *just a tad* longer over the ad as they scroll by, compared to their baseline response from months prior. A data breach of Pornhub reveals browsing habits by IP address block, and gets cross-correlated with sex offender address records. A new kind of browser fingerprinting reveals when children are potentially in violent domestic situations. Furthermore, there's no reason why government actors wouldn't create games and ads and other kinds of "engagement honeypots" that refine their crime likelihood models. Imagine: a group of suspected "at risk" folks get sponsored ads for a gun show in their area, and they linger *just a tad* longer over the ad as they scroll by, compared to their baseline response from months prior. A data breach of Pornhub reveals browsing habits by IP address block, and gets cross-correlated with sex offender address records. A new kind of browser fingerprinting reveals when children are potentially in violent domestic situations.
Our AI future is one where law enforcement and governments, acting under the best of interests, will lead us incrementally down a road to hell: each of us lingering over every keystroke, every swipe, wondering what it's doing to our model weights in some giant, opaque model of our potential for crime. Our AI future is one where law enforcement and governments, acting under the best of intentions, will lead us incrementally down a road to hell: each of us lingering over every keystroke, every swipe, wondering what it's doing to our model weights in some giant, opaque model of our potential for crime.
## Further Reading and Sources ## Further Reading and Sources